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Interesting Expected Value Problem

Hi,
I have a question about EV and if you can answer it then well done.
Let’s say your the hero HU against the Villain and you have a flush draw on the turn and your implied odds are bad because there are 3 hearts on the board and you have an ace of hearts in your hand. You have 9 outs which means roughly 18% chance to hit on the turn. The hero checks out of position.
The Villain has top set, he slow played the flop but bets out $20 into a $200 pot because let’s say he’s quite new to Poker. He has a 82% chance of winning here.
Back to the Hero, he obviously has positive EV, $23 to be exact so he elects to call.
Who has the advantage here? Villain has an 82% chance of winning the pot so at first glance you would think he has the edge and made a Positive EV play. But the Hero made an obviously EV play on his draw. So where is this EV coming from? In the long run who would make the most money in this situation?
Comment what you think, even if it’s just speculation. I will write a little Python script to see the answer over let’s say 1million iterations. If you want more iterations then I will do more but I think 1million is plenty. I will leave the answer in the comments after let’s say 1 weeks time.
Again I want to clarify this is a problem about made hands vs unmade hands.
Thanks
— Edit
I will post what I found sooner than 1 week and post it now because a lot of people have commented and NOT ONE PERSON has provided their answer, instead they are just focusing on the validity of my calculations. Now I have had a few hiccups and bugs but I am happy with this answer...
After 1 Million Iterations: “Villian” gained $76,692,000 “Hero” lost $76,692,000
The Hero called with a positive EV play and is overall at a complete loss after 1 Million simulations.
Now you can go over my code...
It’s here on Stack Overflow for anyone who is interested in the validity of this result: https://www.reddit.com/pokecomments/ivhstg/interesting_expected_value_problem/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
I am only human I could be wrong, but if you show me EXACTLY where I am wrong then F### YOU!!!!! (I’m joking props to you if you see if I am wrong, comment it)
But yeah feel free to speculate or provide an answer, Cheers.
— Edit 2 Thanks to all of you, I know understand EV. Their EV’s add up to the pot. Cheers.
submitted by Free_CurryAU to poker [link] [comments]

new poker reg looking for advice (live 1/3, St. Louis)

Hi /poker,
I'm a new live player that wants to take a shot at making some decent $ at the casino. I've played for small change previously, and had a pretty decent run on the WSOP poker app. (I know it's play money, but when you get to the higher stakes alot of the players become somewhat decent)
I've done two dozen sessions with 1/3 NLHM at a nearby casino (Lumiere in St. Louis) for a few months and have found it to be challenging. I have a couple questions for you guys if you don't mind me asking.

1 - If I choose to play a connectobroadway hand offsuit, are the suits important to memorize?

I say this because unless I have a A or a K, I find the information to be hardly useful. (one less flush card out for a villian, but they don't know that?)

2 - Has your session length endurance improved?

I've noticed after about ~3 hours during a session my play starts to get weaker. Over time have you all been able to improve to longer sessions gradually or have you been stuck at the same session length throughout your poker careers?

3 - When you have TPTK on the flop against a few villains, which is the better +EV long term play and why:

4 - How should mucked cards that are revealed factor into my calculation?

I understand that this can affect outs to:
But what if it is none of the above? Can this act as a positive multiplier for the outs I have already? (ie. if 3 cards are accidentally revealed, multiply your outs by x1.25) Maybe this is so insignificant that it's not worth the hassle.

5 - Drawing with middle or bottom pair on the flop? (no flush or straight added)

The pot odds are terrible, but are the implied odds worth it if the villain is deep stacked? I ask this because I have seen some solid regs (that I'm 90% sure are using poker as a full-time income) use this strategy to take another player's stack with two pair or land trips successfully.

6 - Best bluff strategy for 1/3?

I've found that bluffing 3 streets almost never pays off, even when I have a tight table image. Thus I've dropped my bluff frequency to 1 street, and maybe 2 streets occasionally. Usually I look for scare cards (flush draw, overcard appeared, etc.) for a quick takedown of the pot. I realize bluffing is situation and player dependent moreso than having x% of a bluff range that others like to promote. Am I wrong in thinking this?

7 - Suited connectors in a large multiway pot perform badly?

According to online sources, suited connectors are great for multiway action, but a recent post here - Live 2/3 NLHE - J9s has me second guessing using them in a multiway pot. Should I be looking to only land the straight or two pair with them? Maybe only play small pocket pair for a set or a nutted A/K high flush? I'm unsure now...

8 - How much of a flush range is eliminated when on a flush draw board the suited Ace or King hits the flop?

Assuming most villains play Ax's and Kx's and suited connectors. This would narrow down the flush range by ~1/3 or 1/5? Assuming they play AKs-AJs and KQs-KJs aggressively? How should this affect my decisions when I see a flush draw on the board? What kind of equity calculations should I be doing?

9 - Lastly, what kind of resources do most of you live players use? Flopzilla, Combonator, Equity Lab?

Thanks for taking the time to read this and I hope to be a contributing member to this community in the future! :)
submitted by timothymtorres to poker [link] [comments]

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