Listen up retards. Do you happen to feel regret because you always think “ohhh if I yoloed my savings on TSLA/AMD/NVDA 🚀 leaps years ago I could be rich by now!!!”
Well if you didn't know already, it doesn’t really matter what happened in the past. Hindsight will always be 20/20. You shouldn’t be harsh on yourself on your past self that your past self wasn’t retarded enough to yolo their savings into AMD/TSLA/.... Your past self doesn’t have the same knowledge that your current self has. It’s fine. If you judged those stocks with the best DD you could do at the time and didn’t think they were worth it, then you did a good job.
If you always think about what you could/should have done in the past, then you don't have the right attitude to play the stock market casino imho.
The single most important thing is to be able to look ahead. There are always plenty of opportunities around. There are thousands of rockets that are still on earth right now. Some may depart this year, others will stay a little longer on earth. The true strength lies in being able to identify those rockets with the knowledge you have right now. And if you still miss most rockets that will take-off this year that's fine, maybe you'll learn, get better and you'll do better next year.
Now, what if I told you there’s a big rocket that’s parked right right here on earth and it has decent chance for take-off this year? Maybe it won't quite reach the moon this year yet, but hey leaving the exosphere should already be a cool milestone.
It has rock-solid fundamentals and will see lots of growth in the following years/decade.
It’s a company that has the fundamental technology to power all the computer vision tech, which is bound to boom this decade.
The company we’re talking about is of course Sony, and it is extremely undervalued right now.
Its P/E is only 14. They have a P/S of 1.65, a PEG of 0.92 (< 2 is already somewhat exceptional for a company/conglomerate of Sony’s size, under 1 is a steal)
Much lower than all of its same-sector peers. This indicates significant undervaluation.
Next up Sony has a P/CF 13.2, ROE of 20% (S&P 500 average is 14% which would already be considered pretty good. 20% ROE is excellent), PEGY of 0.89, P/B of 2.65 and finally Sony has $41.6B in cash on hand. This makes Sony one of the cheapest tech/entertainment/EV/semiconductor growth stocks you will find on the market.
(ROE of 20% + PEGY of 0.89 + PEG of 0.92 means this company is a growth stock based on the numbers alone, but we’ll dig into the actual company and overall outlook in a moment)
I challenge all retards to find a company with similar benchmarks in one of the mentioned sectors, seriously.
Quite frankly doing this DD honestly blew my mind. I kept looking everywhere for reasons why the company could be so undervalued and why they may struggle in the future. Very important to look at all the challenges the company faces to make sure I’m not just doing confirmation bias DD. But all I could find was the opposite. After several weeks and months of working on this DD, I can only conclude that it is overall a very solid company for a bargain price. The new CEO is taking the company in a great direction imho and I'm begin to think he could be Sony's Satya Nadella.
So if you want some easy tendies, maybe consider $SNE while it is still cheap, I’d say.
For the autists out there who care about analyst ratings, SONY ($SNE) currently has 18 BUY ratings, 2 OVERWEIGHT, 4 HOLD and 0 SELL. (= analyst consensus is a STRONG BUY). Very little analysts cover this stock compared to other entertainment/tech companies, so this adds to my assertion that the stock is very much under the radar. Which means you have time to get in before it gets noticed by the larger investing world and before it starts to get a more fair valuation (P/E of around 30 would be more fair for this company I think, but still cheaper than many same sector peers). But, anyway the few analysts who do happen to cover this company are basically all saying it’s an instant-buy at its current price.
Most boomer investors still think big Japanese tech companies are dinosaurs that have long been surpassed by China, South Korea and Apple etc ages ago. Young boomers may think Sony = PlayStation and that it's it. But the truth is that PlayStation, while very important (about 24% of Sony's total revenue last year), is a part of a larger story.
Lots of investors in general associate Sony with the passé Japanese electronics companies from the 80’s and the 90’s. Just like a lot people may think BlackBerry is a struggling phone company.
While Sony may not be the powerhouse in consumer electronics it was in the 80’s and the 90’s, in a lot of ways they are more relevant than ever before. Despite being a well-known brand and being known as the company behind PlayStation, for some reason its stock still seems to be under the radar among both retail and institutional investors. And boy, are they mind-blowingly undervalued. Even if a big part of its business would collapse tomorrow, they would still be slightly undervalued. And I am about to tell you why.
(& btw compared to Japanese tech/entertainment stocks $SNE is still super cheap (Canon, Nikon, Toshiba, Sharp, Panasonic, Square Enix, Capcom, Nintendo, Fujitsu all have P/E ratios ranging from 18 to 77 and none of them have the combination of global clout, fundamentals & growth prospects that Sony has))
2021 Sony as a corparation is not the fucking Sony from 2005-2015’s, just like BlackBerry in 2021 is not the fucking Blackberry from 2012. Just like Garmin in 2021 is not Garmin from 2011. Just like AMD in 2021 is not AMD from 2012.
No, in 2021, Sony is the global leader in imaging technology and people do not fucking realize it. Sony has 50% marketshare in the CMOS image sensor market. There’s a very good chance the smartphone in your pocket has Sony image sensors (unless it’s a Samsung phone). Sony image sensors are powering a big part of today's vision/camera technology. And they will power even more of tomorrow's computer vision tech.
In 2021, Sony is a behemoth in video games, music, anime, movies and TV show production. Sony is present in every segment of entertainment. Sony’s entertainment branches have been doing great business over the past 5 years, especially music and PlayStation. Additionally, Sony Pictures has completely turned around.
In 2021, Sony is the world’s biggest music publisher (and second biggest music company overall). Music streaming has been a boon for Sony Music and will continue to be.
In 2021, Sony is among the biggest mobile gaming companies in the world (yes, you read that right). And it’s mainly thanks to one game (Fate/Grand Order) that nets them over $1B revenue each year. One of the biggest mobile gaming companies + arguably biggest gaming brand in the world (PlayStation).
In 2021, Sony is an EV company. They surprised the world when they revealed their “Vision-S” at CES 2020. At the reception was fantastic. It is seriously one of the best looking EV’s. They already sell sensors to Toyota. Sony will most like sell the Vision-S's tech to other car manufacturers (sensors for driving assistence / autonomous driving, LiDAR tech, infotainment system).
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40 sensors in the Sony Vision-S
Considering the overwhelmingly good reception of the Vision-S so far, I suspect the Vision-S could be another catalyst that will put Sony as a company on the radar of investors and consumers.
We've seen insane investment hype for anything even remotely related to EV over the past year. We've seen a company that barely had a few EV design concepts (oh wait, they had a gravity-powered truck though) even get a $30B market cap at some point lmao.
But somehow a profitable company ($SNE) that has an EV that you can actually drive, doesn't even have a fair valuation?
In 2020’s Sony’s brand value is at their highest point since 12 years. In 2021, it is projected to be a its highest point since 2001 assuming same growth as average yearly growth from 2015 to 2020. Keep in mind brand valuation is a bit bullshitty as there’s no standardization to compare brands from different sectors, let alone non-consumer-facing brands with consumer-facing brands. But one thing we can note is that Sony both as B2C brand and as a B2B company is on a big upwards trend.
https://interbrand.com/best-global-brands/sony/
https://careers.uw.edu/blog/2020/03/17/these-are-the-10-biggest-video-game-companies-in-north-america-shared-article-from-zippia/
In 2021, Sony is an entertainment behemoth. They have grown their entertainment branches by a huge amount over the past 5 to 10 years (they made some big acquisitions in the music space especially and they’re now also all-in in anime). I don’t think people realize how big Sony is as an entertainment company. I dug up the numbers and as of Q3 2020, PlayStation is the second biggest video game company in the world (Tencent is #1) in revenue (I suspect Sony might dethrone Tencent after Sony’s FY Q3 2020 is released). But Sony already comes very close to Tencent especially if you add Fate/Grand Order (which is under Sony Music and not under PlayStation) under PlayStation.
There’s no single other company that has this unique combination of a dominant/important position in all entertainment segments. (video games + music + movies + TV series + anime + TV networks). I guess Tencent maybe?
In 2021, Sony has amazing momentum in the camera space. If you’re familiar with the enthusiast photography space, you should know this. Basically, the market is slowly shifting from SLR to mirrorless cameras. This is because mirrorless cameras tend to smallelighter, have faster AF, better low light performance, better battery life and better video performance. Sony is the company that has been specializing in the development for mirrorless cameras for over a decade while Canon’s bread and butter has always been SLR cameras. Sony is in the lead when it comes to mirrorless cameras and that’s where the market is shifting towards. Because the advantages of mirrorless have become more and more apparent and Sony’s cameras have become technically superior, Sony has gained quite a bit of market share over Canon and Nikon in the last few years. In 2019, Sony overtook Nikon as the #2 camera manufacturer. Sony is in an upwards trend here. (they have the ambition to become the world’s #1 camera brand) Sony also has very good marketing for their cameras. (Sony has a lot of YouTubers / influencers / brand ambassadors for their cameras despite being a smaller brand than Canon)
(just search on YouTube and/or Google “switching to Sony from Canon” just to give you an idea that they do have amazing brand momentum in the camera space. You won’t get as many hits for the opposite)
A huge portion of Sony’s profit comes from image sensors in addition to music and video games. This is in addition to their highly profitable financial holdings division & their more moderately profitable electronics division.
Sony’s electronics division, unlike other Japanese brands, has shown great resilience against the very strong competition from China & South Korea. They have been able to maintain their position in the audio space and as of 2020 are still the global market leader in high-end TV’s (a position they have been holding for decades) and it seems they will continue to be able to maintain that.
But seriously this company is dirt-cheap compared to any of its peers in any segment and there’s various huge growth prospects for Sony:

• CMOS image sensors & Sony’s overall imaging prowess will boom due to increased demand from automotive sector, security & surveillance industry, manufacturing industry, medical sector and finally from the aerospace & defence industry. On the longer term, image sensors will continue to boom due to increased demand for computer vision & AI + robotics. And for consumer electronics demand will remain very high obviously.
• Sony is aiming for 60% market share in the CMOS image sensor market by 2026. Biggest threat here is Samsung here who have recently started to aggressively invest in image sensors and are challenging Sony. Sony has technological lead + higher production capacity (and Sony will soon open a new plant in Nagasaki), so Sony should be able to hold off Samsung.
• The iPhone 12 Pro has 3 cameras + a lidar sensor. Apple now buys 3 image sensors (from Sony) + LiDAR sensor (from Sony) per iPhone 12 Pro they manufacture. Remember the iPhone X and iPhone XS? That one had “only” 2 rear cameras (with image sensos from Sony of course). Basically, Sony will be selling exponentially more image sensors as more smartphones get equipped with more and more cameras.
• Now think about how many image sensors Sony can sell to Apple if the iPhone 13 will have 5 cameras + LiDAR sensor (I mean the number of cameras on smartphones certainly won’t decrease)
• Gaming (PS5 hype, PSN game sales are booming, add-on content is booming, PS+ subscribers count is booming and finally PSNow & first-party games sales are trending upwards as well). Very consistent year-on-year profit & revenue growth here. They have a history of beating earnings expectations here. The number of PS+ subscribers went from 4M to 48M in just 6-7 years. Investors love to hype up recurring revenue and subscription services such as Disney+ and Netflix. Let’s apply the same logic to PS+? PS+ already has more subscribers than HBO Max in the USA.
• PlayStation (video games in general) has not even scratched the fucking surface. Most people who play video games now are millennials and kids. Do you think those millennials will stop playing video games when they grow older? No, of course not. Boomers today also still watch movies and TV. Those millennials have kids and those kids are now also playing video games. The kids of those kids will also play video games etc. Basically the total addressable audience for video games will by HUGE by the end of the decade (and the decades after that) because video games will have penetrated all age ranges of the population. Gaming is the fastest growing segment of the whole entertainment business. By a large margin. PlayStation is obviously in a great position here as you can guess from the PS5 hype, but more importantly imho, the growth of PS+ subscribers (currently a bit under 50 million) and PSN users (>100 million MAU) over the past 5 years shows that PlayStation is primed to profit from the audience growth.
• On top of that you have huge video game growth in the China where Sony & PlayStation is already much better established than Xbox (but still super small compared to mobile games and PC gaming in China). Within the console market, Xbox only competes with PlayStation in North America. In the rest of the world, PlayStation has an enormous lead over Xbox. Xbox is simply a lesser known and lesser desirable brand in the rest of the world
• Anime streaming (basically they have a monopoly already + vertical integration, it might still be somewhat niche right now, but it will be big within 5 years. Acquiring Crunchyroll was a very good move)
• Music streaming (no, they don’t have a music streaming service, but as music streaming grows, Sony Music also gets a piece of the growing pie through licensing/royalties, and they also still have a little 2.8% stake in Spotify)
• Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T and Disney are currently battling it out in the streaming wars. When there’s a war you have little chances of winning, you shouldn’t be the one waging the war. You should be the one selling the ammo. Basically Sony Pictures (tv shows + movies) is in that position. Sony Pictures can negotiate good prices for their content because Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T are thirsty for content and they all want their own exclusive content. Sony Pictures does not need to prop up their own streaming service just like Sony Music doesn’t need their own music streaming service when they can just license out their content and turn a profit. There will always be demand for TV & movies content, so Sony Pictures is well positioned is as an independent content provider. And while Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T and Disney are battling it out on the forefront, Sony is quietly building their anime empire in the background. Genius business move from Sony here, seriously. They now have anime production & distribution.
• Netflix has 200M subscribers and they currently have a 250M market cap. Think about what Sony will have in 5 years? >30M Crunchyroll subscribers (assuming all anime will be consolidated into Crunhyroll) & >100M PS+ & PSNow subscribers? Anime and gaming is growing faster than movies and TV shows. (9% CAGR for anime, 12% CAGR for gaming vs. 5% CAGR for the whole movies & TV show entertainment segment which includes PVOD, SVOD, box office, TV etc etc). And gaming as a whole is MUCH bigger than SVOD streaming. Netflix gets 99% of their revenue & profit through subscriptions. For the whole Sony Group Corporation, their subscription services (games + anime) it’s currently only 4.5% of their total revenue. And somehow Sony currently has a meagre $128B market cap?
• PlayStation alone is bigger than Netflix in terms of operating profit. PlayStation has a MUCH higher profit margin than Netflix. For Q3 2020 Netflix posted $790M operating profit and PlayStation posted $988M operating profit. Revenue was was $6.44B for Netflix vs. $4.77B for PlayStation. (and btw Sony’s mobile gaming revenue (~$1B / year) is under Sony Music, it is not even in those PlayStation numbers!!!)
• Think about it. PlayStation alone posts bigger operating profit than Netflix (yes revenue is bit smaller, but it’s the operating profit that matters most). And gaming is growing faster than movies. And PlayStation is about 24% of Sony’s total revenue. And yet Netflix has a market cap that is equal to the double of Sony's market cap? Basically If you apply Netflix’ valuation to PlayStation then PlayStation alone should have a bigger market cap than Netflix' market cap.

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PS+ growth and software digital ratio growth
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• Sony Vision-S & autonomous driving tech (selling sensors + infotainment system to other car manufacturers). Sony surprised everyone when they revealed their Sony Vision-S electric vehicle last year at CES 2020 (in-house design and made in cooperation with Magna Steyr). And it’s currently being tested on public roads. Over the past year we have seen absurdly big investment hype into anything even remotely related to EV’s (including a few questionable companies). We’ve even seen an EV company with a gravity-powered truck get a $30B market cap in June last year. Meanwhile Sony, out of nowhere, revealed what is arguably (subjectively) one of the best looking EV’s. It got very positive reception at CES 2020. An EV that you can actually drive. But somehow their stock is still dirt-cheap based on their current fundamentals alone? Yet some companies that had pretty much nothing but some EV design concepts got insane valuations purely due to hype?
• LTE chips for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Altair Semiconductors)
• Cross-media IP (The Last of Us show on HBO, Uncharted movie etc). Huge unrealized potential synergy here (it’s about to change). We have seen that it can turn out super well when you look at The Witcher, Sonic the Hedgehog and Detective Pikachu. When The Witcher released on Netflix, sales of The Witcher 3 significantly increased again. Imagine the same thing, but with Sony IP’s. Sony Pictures is currently working on 7 video game IP based TV shows and 3 movies. We know The Last of Us tv series is currently in production for HBO. And then the Uncharted is currently in post-production and scheduled to be released in July this year currently. If Uncharted turns out to be successful, it will mark a big, new milestone for Sony as an entertainment company imho.
• Aniplex (Sony Music Entertainment Japan subsidiary for anime production, distribution & mobile games) had a fantastic year in 2020. (more on this later) There is a lot of room for mobile games growth with Aniplex. Thanks to Aniplex, Sony might beat their earnings forecast.
• Drones. DJI just got put on Entity List in USA and Sony started developing drones for prosumer / professional a few years ago. Big opportunity for Sony here to take a bit from DJI’s dominance. It only makes sense for Sony to enter the drone market targeting the professional & prosumer video market, considering Sony’s established position in the professional audio/video/photography space
• Currently Sony also has several ventures & investments in AI & robotics
• Over the past decade, Sony has also carefully expanded into medical equipment tech & biotechnology. Worth noting that Sony also has an important 33% stake in M3 inc (a medical services through-the-internet company with a market cap of $65.5B) (= just their stake in M3 Inc is worth $22B alone, remember Sony, with their large, diversified revenue streams & assets only has a market cap of $128B?)
• Sony Pictures has a great upcoming movie slate (MCU Spider-Man, Uncharted, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Venom 2, Morbius, Spider-Verse sequel, Hotel Transylvania 4, Peter Rabbit 2, Vivo, The Nightingale). They will profit from the theatre reopening and covid recovery. They may even become more favourable among movie theatre chains because they won’t release their movies on the same day on streaming services like Warner (and yeah movie theatres are here to stay, at least for a while imho)
• All the above comes on top of established, mature markets (Financial Holdings & Electronic Products)
• Oh yeah, btw though TV’s are a cyclical and mature market and are not that important for Sony Group Corporation’s bottomline*, Sony TV’s will continue to do well for the following successive years: o 2020: continued pandemic boost

1. 2020-2021: PS5 / Xbox Series X/S
2. 2021 Summer Olympics (tv sales ALWAYS spike during the olympics) (& the effect is more pronounced for high-end TV’s, = good for Sony because Sony’s market share is concentrated in the high-end range (they are market leader in the high-end range)
3. 2022 FIFA world cup (exact same thing as for the olympics)
4. You could say it’s already priced in, but the stock is already ridiculously undervalued so idk…

You would think this company somehow has a bad outlook, but that could not be further from the true, let me explain and go over some of the different divisions and explain why they will moon:
Sony Entertainment
While Netflix, Disney, AT&T, Amazon, and Apple are waging the great streaming war, Sony has been quietly building its anime streaming empire over the past years.

• Sony recently acquired Crunchyroll for $1.175B (it is a great deal for Sony imho and will immediately be more valuable under Sony. Considering the growing appetite for anime I honestly do not even understand why AT&T sold it, they could have integrated it with their other streaming service (HBO Max) but ok)
• With Crunchyroll Sony now has the following anime empire:
• Aniplex (anime production & distribution, subsidiary of Sony Music Entertainment Japan) F
• Funimation
• Manga Entertainment UK (production, licensing, and distribution, UK)
• Wakanam (licensing and distribution in Europe)
• AnimeLab (licensing and distribution in Australia & New Zealand)
• Crunchyroll (3 million paying subcribers, 90 million registered users and 50 million social media followers)

* Why anime matters:
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Anime growth
“The global size is expected to reach USD 36.26 billion by 2025, registering a CAGR of 8.8% over the forecast period, according to a study conducted by Grand View Research, Inc. Growing popularity and sales of Japanese anime content across the globe apart from Japan is driving the growth”
(tl;dr anime 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀, Sony is all in on anime and they have pretty much no competition)
Anime is the fastest growing subsegment of movies/video entertainment worldwide.

• Sony also has a partnership with Bilibili for anime distribution in China:

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201903/26/WS5c990d93a3104842260b2737.html

• Bilibili already partnered with Sony Music Entertainment Japan to bring Aniplex’s hugely successful Aniplex’s Fate/Grand Order mobile game in China.
• Sony acquired a 5% stake in Bilibili for $400M in March 2020 (that 5% stake is now already worth $2.33B at Bilibili’s current share price ($BILI) and imho $BILI still has lots of upside potential considering it is the de facto video creation/sharing/viewing à la YouTube/Twitch for GenZ in China)

https://ir.bilibili.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bilibili-announces-equity-investment-sony
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Sony Music Entertainment Japan
Aniplex

• Sony Music (mobile games) generated $400M revenue from its mobile games in Q2 FY2020, published through Aniplex (Sony Music Entertainment Japan, “SMEJ”) subsidiary
• They are the publisher of Fate/Grand Order, one of the most profitable mobile video games of the past 5 years (has generated $4B in revenue (!!) by the end of 2019 and is still as popular as ever). Fate/Grand order is the 7th most profitable mobile game in revenue worldwide as of 2020 (!)

Fate/Grand Order #9 game by revenue last year as of Q3 2020
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• Aniplex launched Disney: Twisted Wonderland in March this year. In Q3, it was the #10 most downloaded mobile game in Japan. (Aniplex now has two top ten games in Japan)
• Fate/Grand Order was the #2 most tweeted game in 2020 and #3 was Disney: Twisted Wonderland. You can see that Aniplex has two hugely successful mobile games. (we are talking close to $1B of revenue a year here). It is the #2 game in Japan by total revenue from Q1 2016 to Q3 2020 and the #9 game in worldwide revenue from Q1 2020 to Q3 2020.

Aniplex has two very popular mobile games

• SMEJ earns about > $1B from mobile games in revenue from mobile games and there is still a lot of future growth potential here considering Japan’s mobile game market grew a whopping 32% yoy from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020.
• Aniplex recently co-distrubuted the movie Demon Slayer: Mugen Train in Japan in October 2020. It became the highest grossing film of all time in Japan with a total gross box office revenue of $380M. In the middle of a pandemic. It still needs to release in South Korea, China and USA where it will most likely do great as well.

Sony Interactive Entertainment (SIE) (Game & Netwerk Services business unit):
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• We all know 2020 was a huge year for video games with the stay-at-home pandemic boost. The whole video game sector brought in $180B of revenue in 2020, a whopping 20% increase yoy.
• But 2020 will not be just a one-off temporary exceptional year for video games. The video game market has a CAGR of 13% which means it will be worth $291B in 2027. Video games is by far the segment with the highest growth rate in the whole entertainment industry.

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US video game market growth (worldwide growth has a 13% CAGR)
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PlayStation revenue and operating profit growth
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• PlayStation obviously has a huge piece of this pie and over the past years has seen consistent yoy revenue and profit growth. Think about it, for every FIFA/Call of Duty/Assassin’s Creed sold on PS4/PS5, Sony gets a 30% cut. There have been sold a billion PS4 games so far.
• 5 years ago 20 to 30% of PS4 games were purchased digitally. Flashforward to 2020 and it’s 60-75% and the digital ratio looks set to still increase a bit. This means higher profit margin for game publishers and for Sony at the expense of retailers
• SIE has seen huge success in its first-party games over the past 5 years. Spider-Man, God of War, Horizon: Zero Dawn, The Last of Us Part 2, Uncharted 4, Ghost of Tsushima, Days Gone, Ratchet & Clank have all been huge successes. This is really big and represents a big change compared to the previous generations where Sony never really hit it big as a games publisher even though most of their games were considered quality games.
• SIE is now not only a powerful platform holdeprovider, but also a very successful games publisher with popular IP’s (Uncharted, God of War, The Last of Us, Horizon, Ghost of Tsushima, Ratchet & Clank). This is an enormous asset, because firstly it increases the chances of success for cross-media opportunities (Sony Pictures can make TV shows and movies out of it to expand the popularity of those IP’s even more). And secondly, it is an obvious selling point for PS5. The more popular and bigger their exclusive content, the more they can draw people to their platform/service. This should increases PS5 total marketshare over its competitor.
• The hype for God of War: Ragnarok will be absolutely through the roof. Hype for Horizon: Forbidden West is also very good already (10 million yt views, 273K likes which is very good). Gran Turismo 7 and Ratchet & Clank will also do very well in 2021. (I suspect that GoW oand Horizon might be delayed to 2022)
• PS5 reception has been extremely good. Demand is through the roof as well all know. The only problem is that they cannot quite capitalize on the demand due to lack of supply, but overall, it is a very good thing that demand is very high, and that reception has been very positive. The challenge will primarily supply and production-related for the following 6 months and to be able to maintain brand momentum. Hopefully, they won’t push disappointed/inpatient customers to competitors.
• Considering there’s backwards compatibility from PS4 to PS5, users will want all their PSN content to transition with them as well, so I expect them to lose very little marketshare to Xbox. Also, I do not know if Americans realize it, but Xbox is not nearly as big as PlayStation in the rest of the world as it is in the USA. PlayStation just has global brand power that Xbox just doesn’t have, so Xbox isn’t much of threat at all I’d say. Where I live, in Belgium, In Europe everyone is talking about the PS5, nobody really seems to care about Xbox Series S/X that much. Comparing PlayStation to Xbox in terms of mindshare is like comparing Apple to Motorola (not meant to be a diss to Motorola, I have a Motorola phone myself, just saying that Xbox has significantly less mindshare / brand power in Europe).
• SIE is likely working on PSVR 2, this could be big.
• Sony has a small stake in Epic Games (1.4%) and they have a good business relationship with them, so this might also make them open to release first-party games on Epic Games Store after exclusivity period on PS5.
• Remember the Travis Scott concert in Fortnite? I believe that was one of the reasons why Sony invested in Epic Games. It serves as an example how music can sometimes converge with video games, and this can play to Sony’s strengths.
• PlayStation also has way superior presence in Asia compared to Xbox. Have been expanding into China as well. Another great opportunity for revenue growth.
• PS+ subscribers grew from 5.7 million by the end of 2013 to 46 million by October 30th, 2020. This is an average growth rate of 28% over the past 5 years. Considering most of the growth was early on, it will slow down, but I predict that they will have about 70 million PS+ subscribers by the end of 2023. This is huge and represents a stable, recurring source of income. Investors who keep hyping Netflix/Disney+ will love this, but it seems they have yet to discover $SNE.
• There is a reason why Amazon, Google, Nvidia have been aggressively investing in video games & games streaming. They know the business is huge and is about to get even bigger. But considering the established, loyal PlayStation userbase, the established global brand of PlayStation and the exclusive games, PlayStation should be able to easily standoff competition from Amazon, Google and Nvidia (GeForce Now) in the next few years. So far, Amazon’s venture into game development, publishing & streaming has completely failed. Stadia and GeForceNow seem to have a bit more success, but still relatively niche. Therefore, I think PlayStation is well-positioned to remain one of the leaders in the industry for the following decade.

I'll get to the other divisions later, I figured this is a good first step.
But so far the tl;dr
Image sensors: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
IoT/Industry 4.0 chipsets: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
PS5/PSN/PS+: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Online medical services (M3 inc.): 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Anime: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Fate/Grand Order: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Demon Slayer: Mugen Train 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Sony Music / music streaming (the performance of Sony Music’s in Sony’s business is seriously understated. The numbers speak for themselves): 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Sony Electronics 🚀
Sony Financial Holdings (very stable & profitable business, even managed to grow slightly during pandemic when most insurance companies performed more poorly): 🚀🚀🚀
Still have to cover Sony Pictures, but their upcoming movie slate looks pretty good honestly (Spider-Man sequel, Venom: Let There Be Darkness, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Uncharted, Morbius, Hotel Transylvania 4 so that's worth one rocket as well imho 🚀
tl;dr of tl;dr:
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
​
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I am an idiot that's trying to understand why $SNE stock is so cheap.
Positions: SNE 105C 21st January 22

I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is!
--
This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview

• High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:

1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more

• Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
• Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post

Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:

• Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
• Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
• Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
• New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:

1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.

• Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
• Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’

Regulation

• High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
• Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
• Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
• Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
• Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening

Demand

• There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
• For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy

Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis

• Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
• Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
• This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation

Data

• Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
• Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
• I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this

Forecasts financials & analysts

• Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
• Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
• Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management

https://preview.redd.it/nfq8h5fpvmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=f48977ca9c0072003ac71206cef28b0a493dd583
Valuation

• Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
• Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive

​
https://preview.redd.it/4t4n303rvmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=636bca248743272bed283af97780d3e1e121312f

• Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
• Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
• The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis

​
https://preview.redd.it/1mks0oxrvmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=587ca8e2468b825103905931ebe7ab5b42314c6f
NB – assumed the following:

1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones

Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation

• US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
• Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
• Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier

Dilution

• No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
• Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price

​
https://preview.redd.it/vkrb2ousvmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=40f8f4c65b92efc15af0eba42bb873c774700eff
Potentially misleading cost basis information

• A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
• As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
• Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess

Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses

• Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
• No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
• Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
• So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more

If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw

Reposting this DD after it was removed by mods first time around. Potential offending points have been removed.
---
Some of the market stats are a little outdated (market cap, current multiples, etc.) but are correct as of Feb-06. This was originally written for another purpose.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview

• High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:

1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more

• Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
• Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post

Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:

• Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
• Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
• Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
• New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:

1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.

• Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
• Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’

Regulation

• High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
• Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
• Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
• Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
• Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening

Demand

• There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
• For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy

Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis

• Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
• Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
• This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation

Data

• Massively summarized from the other purpose, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
• Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
• I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this

Forecasts financials & analysts

• Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
• Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
• Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management

https://preview.redd.it/csw4p0vpoxg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=143ac8f94e6fcd4df3d50d41f513da45367f28f1
Valuation

• Going to go quick here, however, High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
• Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive

https://preview.redd.it/zo0vr7vqoxg61.png?width=262&format=png&auto=webp&s=686be7e82e3fbfb3d7021823ed84f2cf795b49d2

• Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
• Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
• The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis

https://preview.redd.it/qp6qea1soxg61.png?width=277&format=png&auto=webp&s=3333aa9ea7213961a44bc37e4292bad316872b48
NB – assumed the following:

1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones

Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation

• US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
• Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
• Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier

Dilution

• No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
• Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price

https://preview.redd.it/aaslgozsoxg61.png?width=463&format=png&auto=webp&s=767bffe9d6906bf21340aecd884cfad5ec7219c4
Potentially misleading cost basis information

• A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
• As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
• Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess

Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses

• Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
• No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
• Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
• So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
  TLDR
  

Despite the recent rally in stock price, the business remains undervalued on a relative basis versus its peers (analysis in body of post). There is a compelling investment case for High Tide where in my opinion the merits of the investment outweigh the risks. Clearly given the small cap nature of the stock, this is inherently more volatile than larger blue chip stocks and carries with it a degree of risk.

I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is! Hope this is OK for the mods here?
--
This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview

• High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:

1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more

• Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
• Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post

Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:

• Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
• Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
• Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
• New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:

1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.

• Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
• Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’

Regulation

• High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
• Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
• Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
• Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
• Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening

Demand

• There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
• For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy

Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis

• Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
• Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
• This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation

Data

• Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
• Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
• I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this

Forecasts financials & analysts

• Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
• Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
• Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management

​
https://preview.redd.it/5pwznbe5xmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb1be853d9db5eaa7dc3c7b26630a173bbd064cf
Valuation

• Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
• Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive

​
https://preview.redd.it/l52oajp6xmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=e31e1944101c6488a24f470bc3b91744f4c2dccf

• Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
• Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
• The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis

​
https://preview.redd.it/2j51fwigxmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=f678c5c66ced846ac45fa698c7e454f71a4232b6
NB – assumed the following:

1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones

Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation

• US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
• Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
• Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier

Dilution

• No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
• Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price

​
https://preview.redd.it/t0im6idhxmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bff366e68eeeadd5ac49ab5d97885685a327a6b
Potentially misleading cost basis information

• A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
• As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
• Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess

Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses

• Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
• No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
• Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
• So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more

If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw

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*not a financial advisor - just my personal opinion*
Summary: Enthusiast Gaming is a media company active in the gaming segment. It develops internal brands, acquires websites, partners with influencers and merges with gaming teams to create the leading gaming media company. It is betting that gamers want to consume gaming-related content once they stop playing and the company seeks to corner the off-game experience. It now counts over 300m gamers and generates 4.2B monthly views at an ARPU of $ 0.4. Enthusiast Gaming is acting as the consolidator in the gaming media segment and is driven by the segment’s underlying growth as the esports market is set to grow at over 20% per year over the 2020 - 2025 period. Going forward, it plans to improve its audience’s monetization through subscription services and apps

GAMING MEDIA 📷

The company engages with a community of 300m monthly gamers through a series of websites, YouTube channels, influencers, events and esports organisations. It generates over 4.2B views each month.

“[…] boosting its reach to a total of 300 million gamers monthly and making it the largest gaming media platform in North America […]” Christina Settimi for Forbes

It grows by developing original content and new concepts but also by acquiring competing websites, gaming teams and partnering with influencers. Today, the company disposes of a full-suite of video game outlets:

• 100 websites (Destructoid, Daily eSports, The Escapist, Nintendo Enthusiasts)
• 1,000 YouTube Channels (The Squad, Arcade Cloud)
• A professional gaming team called Luminosity Gaming (747,000 subscribers on YouTube versus 2.3m for TSM, one of the largest gaming teams)
• 500 gaming influencers, gamers and content creators
• An esports expo gathering 12m online viewers

📷 FULL EXPERIENCE 📷
Instead of developing and selling its own games, Enthusiast Gaming’s products are centred around the fan experience. The company is betting that it can deliver value to players by providing the content and media they want to consume.
Enthusiast Gaming wants to corner the off-game experience and therefore provides the following possibilities to its users:

1. Read an article or join a forum on one of their Websites
2. Watch a YouTube video on one of their Channels
3. Follow the professional teams
4. Watch live streamed content from one of their I-influencers on their Twitch Channel
5. Attend a live or virtual event to connect with other fans and custom activations like tournaments, merchandise, player and celebrities

Going forward, the company wants to become the leading media organisation and social network in gaming.

“Gaming is the new social network, and we’re building it,” Enthusiast CEO Adrian Montgomery by Christina Settimi for Forbes

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📷2. LARGE AND GROWING AUDIENCE 📷

Enthusiast Gaming’s one-stop-shop solution makes it an increasingly attractive tool for brands targeting the Gen Z and millennial cohort.

• The company’s audience totals 65m individuals in the U.S. and 11m in the UK (43% of males aged 18-34 visit at least one Enthusiast Gaming site per month)
• 65% of its users spend over 15 hours a week gaming and 67% buy over 7 games each year
• According to Nielsen, 71% of millennial gamers watch gaming video content (GVC) on platforms like YouTube and Twitch*“In addition to watching GVC* for nearly six hours each week, this highly engaged audience also spends an average of $29 in donations each month to their favorite content creators.” Nielsen
• It doesn’t need to spend money to attract visitors and relies exclusively on organic traffic with $0 spent on SEO and $0 Cost of Acquisition

“If you have a business that requires you to reach Gen Z or millennials, you cannot avoid gaming or us*,”* Enthusiast CEO Adrian Montgomery by Christina Settimi for Forbes“[…] two-thirds of those aged 18 to 34 are playing video games every month and that, when they aren’t gaming, they’re watching gaming*—figures backed by Nielsen.”* Christina Settimi for Forbes“[…] two in three U.S. Millennials now playing every month. Brands and media companies should add gaming to their media plans so they reach a highly engaged Millennial audience*.”* Nielsen

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3. BRAND SAFE PRODUCT FOR TIER-1 PARTNERS ✅

Through its ensemble of brands, it is able to offer a brand safe advertising environment as ads are displayed in a gaming-first environment, minimising the risk of misalignment between page content and the advertiser’s message.

“For the Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB), brand safety is defined as keeping a brand’s reputation safe when they advertise online. In practice, this means avoiding placing ads next to inappropriate content.” BannerFlow

Through its focus on gaming, Enthusiast Gaming is able to provide the brand safe environment advertisers look for when they want to reach the millennial and Gen Z cohort. Enthusiast Gaming is then able to leverage its media advertising, custom content, esports sponsorships and influencer marketing to fulfil its partner goals.
This leads TIER-1 companies interested in Enthusiast Gaming’s audience to advertise with them:

• Amazon Studios
• Snapchat
• Twitch
• Tik Tok
• Gillette
• Nintendo

The company recently signed a deal with Samsung to provide them with product placement and promotional activity with its influencers. Samsung will sponsor the Luminosity Gaming team and the Enthusiast Gaming expo.

“We are thrilled to announce Samsung as an Enthusiast gaming partner and to work with them across our suite of integrated media*, esports and entertainment assets to* create awareness and drive share for their leading PC offerings, exclusively designed for gamers.” Enthusiast CEO Adrian Montgomery from Gaming Street

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4. MAKING MONEY 📷

The company generates only 6% of its sales from esports and makes the bulk of its revenue from advertising contracts. In 2020, the company is expected to make $ 95m in sales which include $ 61m in revenue that is has to redistribute to its content creators.

Enthusiast Gaming has a 5-steps growth plan that is meant to create value by growing their audience while growing their Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) by selling subscriptions, licenses and apps.

1. Build Scale / Own the Fan Experience (ARPU of $ 0.4)

• Enthusiast Gaming grew its audience to 300m gamers through its network of influencers, websites and live events

1. Monetise through Advertising (ARPU of $ 1)

• The company monetised its audience exclusively through programmatic ads, which provided low CPMs
• It now seeks to optimise its programmatic ads and boost its advertising revenue through direct sales

1. Sell Content (ARPU of $ 1.5)

• It plans to increase its subscriptions and licensing revenues in order to generate an ARPU of $ 1.5
• Today, it already counts 115,000 paying subscribers and is licensing its products to Snap and Samsung

1. Marketplace (ARPU of $ 2)

• It plans to increase its ARPU to $ 2 by launching a marketplace and monetising its apps

1. Social (ARPU of $ 3)

• In the last phase, Enthusiast Gaming plans to reach a $ 3 ARPU by offering social networks features

5. FUELLING GROWTH ⭐️

Enthusiast Gaming is consolidating its market through a series of mergers and acquisitions. Most recently, it merged with Luminosity Gaming (which operates 7 esports teams) and it acquired Omnia Media for $ 34m.

• Omnia Media’s produces over 30 weekly shows across AVOD and OTT channels
• It represents over 500 YouTube influencers and counts over 90M unique viewers
• Omnia Media’s 2019 sales increased 29% year-on-year and reached $ 59.9m

“The purchase is a bargain find for Enthusiast*, which has gobbled up* 12 gaming companies in the last three years*, including paying $20 million for The Sims Resource, one of the largest female gaming destinations. TSR is visited by over 2 million monthly […]”*“Last August, Enthusiast merged with Luminosity Gaming*, the operator of seven esports teams, including the Seattle Surge of the Call of Duty League and the Vancouver Titans of the Overwatch League,* with over 70 million followers.” Christina Settimi for Forbes

6. THE MARKET 📷

The esports market is growing at over 20% per year over the 2020 - 2025 period, driven by increasing smartphone penetration, a reduction in the price of mobile internet and innovations such as cloud gaming.

1. According to Goldman Sachs, esports revenue is set to reach $ 3B by 2022

• With prize pools expected to grow by a CAGR of 30% over the 2019 - 2024 period

1. According to Research And Markets, the esports market is set to grow by a CAGR of 20% over the 2020 - 2025 period and reach $3B

• Driven by the growing popularity of esports on a global level and increasing game publishers support

1. According to Global Data, the video games market could reach $ 300B by 2025 up from $ 131B in 2018

• Driven by the advent of mobile gaming, cloud gaming, virtual reality gaming and new payments model (in-game micro-payments) which boost spending*“At the same time, new technologies like 5G, cloud, and virtual reality will usher in a new phase of innovation” - Ed Thomas,* Global Data

1. According to Mordor Intelligence, the gaming market is set to go from $ 151B in 2019 to $ 257B by 2025

• Growing by 9.2% a year over the 2020 - 2025 period
• Driven by the upgrade cycle in consoles (Sony and Microsoft), the emergence of cloud gaming and the rise of esports

1. FINANCIAL CHECK 📷

• Revenue was $ 16.3m, an increase of 133% compared to $ 7.0m in Q2
  • Pro forma (including the Omnia Media acquisition) revenue was $ 31.7m for Q3 2020, an increase of 17% compared to $ 27.2m in Q2
• Gross margin decreased to 24.8% in Q3 2020 from 65.1% in Q3 2019 and reached $ 4.1m
  • Pro forma gross margin increased to 16.8% from 16.7% in Q2 and reached $ 5.3m
• Operating expenses were $ 8.2m, an increase of 5% from $ 7.8m in Q3 2019
  • Pro forma operating expenses were $ 9.3m, an increase of 4% compared to $ 8.9m in Q2
• Net loss and comprehensive loss for Q3 was $ 8.0m, compared to a loss of $ 16.1m in Q3 2019
• Pro forma total views across written and video content were 10.6B for Q3, down from 12.5B in Q2
• Company has $ 27.2m in current assets and $22.3m in current liabilities and $ 22m in long-term debt

7. THE BOTTOM LINE ⚡️

The Good

• Enthusiast Gaming is turning itself into the leading media company in the gaming sector
• It is doing so by acquiring competitors, partnering with influencers and merging with leading gaming teams
• The esports market is growing at a rapid pace and set to double in the coming 5 years, providing the organic market growth Enthusiast Gaming needs
• Its one-stop-shop offering enables it to serve TIER-1 customers as Amazon, Snap, Tik Tok and Samsung

The Bad

Gross margins have sharply decreased in the past year and the company is significantly indebted, which may require the company to raise additional cash before it reaches profitability

• The pandemic gave a boost to the gaming sector but negatively affected esports events, to which Enthusiast Gaming is exposed through its gaming teams and events

For more DD read:
https://twitter.com/kwiksadic/status/1357484650004844544
Sources and credits:
Credit to Benchmark. This is his work. Check him out:
https://getbenchmark.substack.com/p/enthusiast-gaming-a-133-growth-monster

• Investor presentation
• Company website
• Venture Beat
• Forbes
• The eSports Observer
• Gaming Street
• Games Industry Biz
• Nielsen
• The Wrap
• Daily eSports
• Bannerflow
• Goldman Sachs
• Mordor Intelligence
• Global Data
• Research And Markets

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Disclaimer: No financial Advice here. Do your own DD. Just personal opinion....